Take Your Money Out Of Corporate Bonds And Run: US High Yield Credit Spreads Will Widen To 10%-14%

22.02.2017

• United States corporations leverage is too high and therefore US high yield corporate bonds prices could sink more than 30%.
• The inability of CCC corporate bonds to have access to primary markets is a good leading indicator of corporate default rates. 
• Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity is predicting a heavy widening of US corporate bond spreads.

 

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 Take Your Money Out Of Corporate Bonds And Run: US High Yield Credit Spreads Will Widen To 10%-14%

IN PICTURES

22.02.2017

• Short term (<12 months): US high yield corporate bonds spread could go up to 8% within 6 or 9 months. 

• Medium term (12 months to 24 months): US high yield corporate bonds spread will widen to 12%-14% before end of  2018.

• Long term (one decade): US high yield corporate bonds spread will hit 1.5% (all times low) during 2024-2026.

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Trump's 'Helicopter Money'?: Long Term US Treasury Yields Will Probably Hit All Times Lows

20.12.2016

• Zero interest-rates policy (ZIRP) is needed to reduce current ultra-high levels of debt.
• Structural inflation increase in United Sates is caused mainly by labor force growth rather than monetary base increase.
• Public debt increase have to be funded. Historically high deficit and public debt ratios in United States coincided with minimum interest rates.

 

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  Trump's 'Helicopter Money'?: Long Term US Treasury Yields Will Probably Hit All Times Lows

IN PICTURES

20.12.2016

• Short term (<12 months): 10 year US yield could go up to 2.75% within 3 or 4 months. 

• Medium term (12 months to 24 months): 10 year US yield will drop to 0% before end of  2018.

• Long term (one decade): 10 year US yield will hit 3% again during 2023-2026.

 

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You Should Not Own US Stocks: Stocks Have No Further Upside For The Next Decade

23.11.2016

• Investor Equity Allocation as a percentage of Financial Assets predicts the S&P 500 will see a 0% increase in price over the next decade.

• By most metrics equities appear overvalued.

 

 

 

 

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You Should Not Own US Stocks: Stocks Have No Further Upside For The Next Decade IN PICTURES

23.11.2016

• Short term (<12 months): S&P 500 index could go up to 2.350 within 2 or 3 months. 

• Medium term (12 months to 24 months): S&P 500 index will drop to 1550 before end of 2017 (bull case) or 1.250 before end of 2018 (base case).

• Long term (one decade): S&P 500 index will be in the 2100-2400 range during 2023-2026.

 

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Gold Mining Stocks: The Best Investment Asset For The Next Decade

30.08.2016

• To start a bull market, gold miners only need a period of poor stock market returns.

• On a CAPE Ratio basis, the U.S. stock market is at the third most expensive level it has ever been.

• Gold is money denominated in dollars, therefore gold and gold mining stocks should revalue themselves from a similar way to increase of the money supply in dollars in the long.

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Gold Mining Stocks: The Best Investment Asset For The Next Decade

 IN PICTURES

06.12.2016

• Short term (<12 months): GDX ETF could go up to $55 before end 2017. 

• Medium term (12 months to 24 months): GDX ETF will increase to $80 before 2018 finish.

• Long term (>one decade): GDX ETF will be in the $250-300 range by 2030.

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